Advice 1: Will Ukraine join the EU

The events of the period autumn 2013 - spring 2014 in Ukraine led to the loss of social, economic and political stability. It all started with the desire of the people (or a particular part thereof) to be part of the European Union. Now, after all that, what are the real chances of Ukraine to join the EU?
Will Ukraine join the EU

Will Ukraine join EU: formal issues

Every political issue in most cases can be answered only in the conditional - guessing, analysis, and intuition. And when it comes to the state where only recently there was a revolution, then everything becomes more complicated.

On the one hand, EU doors for Ukraine are open. Technically speaking.

If we consider signed on March 24, the Ukrainian Minister, the Association agreement with the European Union, we can say that Ukraine is confident steps moving toward the European, democratic future - this document is the recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and that the Association agreement lays the Foundation for reforms in the field of law, legal proceedings and other spheres of life.

It should be noted immediately that the signed 24 Mar 2014 "preamble", that is, only the political part of the Association agreement with the EU in no way affects the economy and social sphere of the country. It can be called only the beginning.

Whether such a beginning of the continuation is unknown. Perhaps the credibility of the EU is exhausted - too much depends on how events will develop in Ukraine in 2014.

Do not forget that, although the current government of Ukraine was (formally) recognized as legitimate by the EU and the US, Ministers and politicians of those same countries Express great concern about who actually is conducting the current political elite of Ukraine.

Real adoption by the European Union in its composition of Ukraine. Is there a...?

Analyst Alex Poltorak: "of Course, the EU does not want to sign the economic part of the agreement with a kind of hodgepodge, which is now in power in Ukraine. Their position is simple - the EU does not need an unstable state."

If you push in the side of formality and to discuss the realities, it appears that the EU is not interested in Ukraine's accession to their ranks.

The main reason for this is the unstable political and social situation in the country: distrust of the people to the government, which started the separatist movement in the South-East of Ukraine and the chaos in the security and police structures.

The EU does not shelter the one who will bring in the future only problem.

As a second reason in favor of integration can be economic factor - Ukraine produces almost nothing, so the possible accession to the EU just squeezes all the juice out of a depleted economy of the country. Understand this and the European Union, and Ukrainian analysts.

Advice 2 : What's bad for Russia of Ukraine's accession to the European Union

Ukraine shall declare their desire and readiness to enter the European Union. And although the EU is even theoretically not promise Ukraine this possibility, in the case of implementation of this variant as Ukraine itself, and Russia will be confronted with numerous difficulties, primarily economic.
What's bad for Russia of Ukraine's accession to the European Union
You need to be aware that the vast majority of EU countries oppose the accession of Ukraine. Even Turkey, for many years an important trading partner of the EU and wanting to join it, hardly ever wait for such an offer. It is no coincidence that some Western politicians with a bit of cynicism claim that Ukraine could join the EU immediately after the accession of Turkey. That is never.

The economic consequences of Ukraine's accession to the European Union

And yet what would it mean for Russia such entry, if it ever will be? At the end of June 2014 Ukraine signed with the EU an Association agreement with the EU. Note that the Association with the EU is not EU membership, but simply the establishment of closer political and economic ties. It should be noted that the Association agreement with the EU pushes Ukraine truly onerous conditions – not by chance ousted President Viktor Yanukovych declined to sign the agreement. For example, in his text there is a clause according to which Ukraine will be forbidden to sell meat, bacon, butter and milk produced in households. This means that Ukrainians and Russians will lose their natural Ukrainian products. Very soon the residents of Ukrainian villages, in practice, will feel that they brought the Association with the EU.

And such moments very much. If the agreement is signed, Ukraine will automatically lose the Russian market – at least because Ukraine will apply the European rules and regulations, including clean technology. For most enterprises of Ukraine, oriented to the Russian market, it will be a disaster. Nothing good will not bring it and Russia, because Ukrainian enterprises produced a large amount of Russian products. For example, most engines, to be installed on Russian helicopters are produced in Ukraine. Already now Russia has urgently to increase the production of helicopter engines in their enterprises.

The rupture of relations with industrial enterprises of Ukraine will be Russia's most painful moment. To replace the Ukrainian industrial production, can take years.

Political aspects of Ukraine's accession to the EU

If Ukraine joins the EU or will get a different status, contributing to the rapprochement with Europe, for Russia is one of the most negative aspects can become the subsequent entry of Ukraine into NATO and the approach of the troops of this military unit directly to the Russian borders. Although after the return of Crimea to Russia, this perspective seems less dangerous, it still very unpleasant. Therefore, Russia tries to do everything in her power to minimize the possible negative consequences of the rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU.
Is the advice useful?