What factors will affect the dollar in 2016
The main factor influencing the ratio of the value of the dollar and the ruble remains the price of oil. If in 2016 the oil will be worth more than $60 per barrel, the ruble against the U.S. dollar will increase (about 40-45 rubles to the dollar).
A great role is also played by the sanctions of Western countries against Russia. If sanctions will be eased in 2016, this will certainly help the growth of the ruble against the U.S. dollar. When you save or tightening of sanctions, the dollar will cost about 60 rubles.
CBR maintains a policy that focuses on a floating exchange rate. According to many experts, the situation on the foreign exchange markets have stabilized so the ruble in 2016 to start its strengthening against the US dollar and the Euro. However, there is a completely opposite opinion of experts. Some analysts believe that it is the policy of floating exchange rate might result in the 2016 fall relative to world currencies.
Not last role is played by the political situation in the world. The outcome of events in Syria, Ukraine, Greece and the EU is unknown. These factors complicate an adequate assessment of the dollar against the Russian ruble in 2016.
What will be the dollar in 2016: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of economic development, CBR
The Russian official departments give rosy predictions about the dollar exchange rate in 2016: the situation on the currency markets will improve and the dollar will be worth about 50-55 rubles. Such prospects for the ruble are added due to import substitution and rising oil prices.
Experts of the Russian authorities believe that in 2016 the exchange rate will be in the range of 49-63 rubles for one dollar. Maximum values are recorded in September 2016, and the minimum in December next year.
The opinions of foreign experts
But foreign analysts believe that for one dollar of the United States in 2016 will give 70-75 rubles.
Why foreign specialists are so pessimistic? Mainly due to sanctions and falling oil prices. Also predicted the crisis phenomena in the Russian economy, which will manifest itself as time in 2016.
Analysts say Goldman Sachs
But the experts of this authoritative agencies believe that the dollar exchange rate in 2016 will be fixed at around 58 Russian rubles per dollar. According to them, the price of oil has already passed its low and will rise.
What ordinary people
Based on the foregoing, consensus of experts simply do not exist: very much tense international situation, the outcome of many important events no one can predict.
What will happen in 2016? None of the predictions can not be considered absolutely accurate. To protect yourself from a volatile situation, the experts recommend to keep your savings for the citizens of Russia in several currencies. It is time to wean itself from the traditional US dollars and Euro and draw their attention on the yuan, Swiss francs and pounds sterling.